Having put Uddhav Thackeray’s chief ministership within the dock with a full-blown revolt, Shiv Sena insurgent Eknath Shinde has now set sights on gaining full management of the social gathering. However, Shinde’s street to supremacy is fraught with advanced challenges that may take a look at his persistence and his means to maintain his flock intact, suggests former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi. In an unique interplay with Financial Express Online, Quraishi delves into the chances and breaks down the complexities concerned in a state of affairs the place the Election Commission of India might have the ultimate phrase.
Here are edited excerpts from the interview:
Q. How do you see the anti-defection regulation enjoying out within the Eknath Shinde case?
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A: Originally, the choice was that if at the least one-third of the social gathering defected, it wouldn’t be referred to as defection. Later on, the one-third rule was dropped and if at the least two-thirds of the MPs/MLAs from a celebration change into one other group, they will merge with one other social gathering. In this case, there may be hardly any query of Eknath Shinde and the ‘rebel’ Shiv Sena MLAs of merging with the BJP — that’s unlikely, and can be suicidal for them. They will completely get subsumed by the social gathering.
Q. What are the choices accessible for the Eknath Shinde camp then?
A: The route they’re more likely to take was a route taken by Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav in opposition to his father Mulayam Singh Yadav when Akhilesh had the bulk. The Election Commission (EC) dominated that Akhilesh is the Samajwadi Party. This is the doubtless state of affairs, so far as I see. With a majority of MLAs with him, Shinde is more likely to struggle for the ‘real’ Shiv Sena. Shinde can go to the EC and say that he has 38 out the 55 MLAs and declare that he’s the ‘real’ Shiv Sena. The EC will subsequently go a ruling after going by means of the deserves of the case. Further, Shinde additionally has the choice to say ‘recognise my faction’ – for instance, Shiv Sena 1 or Shiv Sena 2.
Q. If Eknath Shinde does method the EC on this, how lengthy will it take for him to kind a separate social gathering or declare the possession of the unique Shiv Sena?
A. The entire course of takes at the least 30 to 40 days, generally it might probably stretch as much as six to eight months, as you need to give discover to the opposite social gathering involved for his or her response. It is a quasi-judicial course of, and attorneys from either side can be roped in. When Shinde will apply to the EC claiming the help of majority members throughout the social gathering, he must submit the names and signatures of the MLAs supporting him. The EC may even authenticate the signatures, and examine whether or not they’re real or bogus. That is a time-taking course of. It is as much as Eknath Shinde to assert no matter identify he needs for his faction — whether or not it’s, for instance, Shiv Sena (Shinde) or anything.
Q. It looks like a long-drawn affair. Any probabilities of Eknath Shinde getting a new social gathering earlier than at the least a month?
A: If the elections had been due, prefer it occurred within the Akhilesh Yadav case as UP Assembly elections had been across the nook — in that case, the EC passes an interim order. Like on this case, the EC can go an interim order saying, for instance – ‘You’re Shiv Sena A, and also you’re Shiv Sena B’. In that case, they’ll freeze the image of Shiv Sena, and the 2 separate factions will now get two completely different symbols. Since the unique image is disputed, therefore its frozen. So, after the EC recognises the 2 factions, then they will go forward and struggle the elections in opposition to one another. However, the EC passes an interim order provided that elections are due within the state. Then, the EC has to determine rapidly on the matter, therefore the interim order.
In this case, each events will put forth their respective claims earlier than EC, whereas offering a listing of signatures of MLAs supporting their factions. There is a risk that widespread signatures would possibly seem within the respective lists offered by each camps. So, the entire course of is a time-taking one. If there was a compelling motive to go a fast judgement, if an election is not far away, then the EC passes an interim order.
Q. What would be the position of the Speaker and the method for disqualification…
A: The Speaker of the Assembly or the Election Commission has the authority to disqualify the members on this case. The social gathering can expel the members. It can subsequently write to the Speaker to disqualify the members underneath anti-defection regulation. The Speaker will see the totality of the case, whereas giving a call. The Speaker will see if the MLAs had been put underneath stress to affix the Shinde camp and speak to each legislator earlier than coming to a call — he must be happy that they aren’t underneath any menace or compulsion.
Q. In the absence of a full-time Speaker, Deputy Speaker Narhari Zirwal, who can be from the NCP, would be the deciding authority on this matter. What if Eknath Shinde shouldn’t be pleased with Zirwal’s ruling on this matter?
A: If he isn’t happy, Shinde can all the time method the High Court or Supreme Court. Then the court docket will both hear the matter or it might probably additionally ship it to the EC.
Q. Shiv Sena MP Sanjay Raut mentioned that they’re initiating a disqualification course of in opposition to 16 MLAs…
A: According to me, they’ve despatched the (names of) 16 die-hard supporters of the ‘rebel’ camp for disqualification. If all of the 38 legislators’ names had been despatched for disqualification, then the potential of others coming again to the ‘Uddhav’ camp diminishes. So, they will need to have distinguished between the die-hards and those on the fence. In a approach, the ‘Uddhav’ camp believes that, the remainder sitting on the fence would possibly return after getting intimidated by the disqualification transfer. Also the query of a whip asking ‘rebel’ MLAs to return doesn’t apply on this case, as a result of there was no legislative exercise concerned.
Source: www.financialexpress.com”